LaFerrari is here. It's been an endless procession of exotica lapping the Nurburgring in recent weeks. It started with the McLaren P1, which prompted a furore of
sub seven speculation
. This was closely followed by the Porsche 918 Spyder which ended all that speculation with a genuine
6m57s lap time
LaFerrari has arrived at the 'ring this week...
And before McLaren could even regroup its forces, the third and final hybrid hypercar of 2013 just arrived at the Nurburgring Nordschleife. Yep, Ferrari is here.
With the hype surrounding lap times, and following in the wake of Marc Lieb's magical lap (below), there's no way Ferrari's visit is an innocent one. I just can't believe that.
But I also don't believe it will beat Porsche's time.
I'm not particularly a Porsche, McLaren or Ferrari fan. If you want an emotionally charged reaction from me, you'd be better off asking about first generation MX-5s versus second.
So let's keep this analytical. Why do I honestly believe the two other cars won't beat the Germans?
... but Dale's unsure it will beat 6m 57s
Is it the power? The LF's total output (V12 and two battery-drill motors) tops 963hp. The P1 claims 916hp. By comparison the Porsche 'only' has 887hp at peak, and relies more heavily on 279hp of electric output for that impressive total figure (watch the lap and compare the top speed up Kesselchen with full batteries to the top speed up the Dottinger Hohe with empty batteries). When you factor in the crazy active aero of the P1 and LF, and their lighter kerbweights (the Porsche is around 400kg heavier than the LF), it's hard to believe the Porsche can even compete.
But this is where it gets tricky for the Italians and Brits. Porsche practically lives at the Nurburgring. It tests all year. It doesn't don't rent a workshop for a week or two. It has one of the best (and most secretive) facilities here. Its engineers, technicians and drivers know the Nordschleife inside and out.
Setting a lap time on the 13-mile Nordschleife cannot be compared to something as simple as, for example, the Top Gear test track. The scale is incomparable. You can't just drive around for a day and be sure that you will get the perfect lap. The variables are immense.
Is Lamborghini planning a riposte too?
From a driving point of view, the perfect lap is always tough. On a one-minute lap, it might only take a few sessions. On a two-minute lap it's more than twice as difficult. Up the scale to three minutes at somewhere like Spa-Francorchamps and you might be there all weekend before you get it nailed. Treble it again to the Nordschleife's scale and the perfect lap might never be achieved.
It's for that reason that I don't believe that McLaren's P1 went under seven minutes, for all of its previous boasting or technological marvels. The engineers, the drivers, they have made a wonderful car. The same is true at Ferrari.
But they're just not invested into the Nurburgring like Porsche are. They don't have Nordschleife experts like Marc Lieb and 'old guy' Walter on the hotline. McLaren and Ferrari are coming into a dark room full of obstacles, and only Porsche know where the light switch is.
Of course, if either the P1 or LaFerrari can beat the 918's time without resorting to slicks, I think it will reflect even more favourably on any car managing to beat Porsche's experience and local knowledge. But that's a big if!
Video of Marc Lieb's stunning 918 lap:
